The Rundown- Week 4

Ray Lewis and the Baltimore Ravens head into Foxboro for an exciting early season matchup.


Written by: MJK


Parity Rules

Its kind of a trip thinking about how fast the season has flown by. We are already in week 4. However, with every season there are a few constants that remain from year to year.   Of course, parity in the NFL is commonplace and this season has been far from the exception.  Here are a few facts to prove this. 

-Here’s some simple math.  You take last seasons division winners from the AFC South, AFC East and NFC South. This equals 3 teams. You take the number 3 and multiply by 2. This gives us 6. Last season these teams had 6 wins combined after week 3. Divide 6 by 3. This gives us 2 again. These teams also combined for an average of 2 wins per after week 3 last season. You take 2 and multiply it by the $180 million I currently have stashed away in Swiss bank accounts. And you get ZERO. Partly, because those millions don’t exist and partly because, well…those millions don’t exist. Now, take zero and apply it to the win totals of the aforementioned 2008 division winners: Tennesee, Miami and Carolina. Here is the only math that needs to make any sense to you. Week 4 + 0 combined wins = No playoffs for all of the above. Bank on it. In fact, Swiss bank on it. 

- We have already seen running back depth charts turn over at a very frequent pace due to injury, position battle or league injunction (Marshawn Lynch).  If the current week 4 injury reports hold up, then 9 teams will have started running backs that were not atop their respective depth charts heading into week 1. Of course, in Lynch’s case he wasn’t #1 on Buffalos depth chart because the team already knew his suspension would take place, but prior to week 1 I think it WAS safe to say Lynch was the #1 back in Buffalo when available.  Fred Jackson’s emergence in his absence seems to have faded that notion just a bit. Glen Coffee (SF) and Rashard Mendenhall (Pitt) look to take advantage of their first career starts this week while Jerome Harrison (Cle.) will (as of press time) make his second career start and try to rejuvenate a bland Cleveland offense.

- The dreaded Super Bowl hangover seems to have hit once again. Both of last seasons participants find themselves with losing records headed into week 4.  However, Pittsburgh and Arizona (both 1-2) are not in as dubious of positions as the Winless Division Winner group from above.  Arizona has a (dare I say) MUCH needed bye week. This should give the team time to regroup and formulate a way to capture the offensive magic that propelled them to average over 26 points a game last season. So far in 2009 they are scoring nearly a touchdown less.  Pittsburgh on the other hand has been cursed with a pretty brutal early season schedule.  They beat Tennesee in week 1 and followed that with a loss to an inspired Bears team and the suddenly (ok…each team gets a “dare I say” moment) FOR REAL Cincinnati Bengals. I still have a hard time believing in the latter.  Regardless, Pittsburgh finds themselves with another tough matchup in week 4 as they face off against the San Diego Chargers on Sunday Night Football.  A loss here could start paving a path towards 2009 season uncertainty.

- Finally, 6 out of the 8 NFL divisions are currently being led by teams who did NOT win the division last season. That is a huge percentage.  I know it is still early but one would think that teams would want to build off of last season’s success.  This is obviously not the case. Blame it on what you will but the fact remains that the NFL is the most popular and exciting professional sport to watch for simply this reason.  Parity Rules.

Match Play: A look at the weeks most important matchups

Saints offense vs. Jets defense

Anytime the Saints offense matches up with a formidable defense it presents an intriguing matchup.  This week is no different.  The Jets present a number of problems for this Drew Brees led offense that finds themselves ranked as the #1 overall offense in the NFL.  The Jets will bring the heat.  Rex Ryan’s defense stymied Tom Brady and Company two weeks ago and will resort to a similar game plan to confuse and fluster Drew Brees.  The left tackle position for the Saints has been decimated by injuries.  I expect this Jet’s D to attack and exploit this weakness.  On the flip side, I think we all know this much by now…Drew Brees is no joke. Sure, he was held to a very pedestrian 172 yards and no touchdowns last week in Buffalo but this is the exception for Brees, not the rule.  Additionally, if anyone can formulate an offensive game plan to slow down the Jets blitz heavy scheme it is Saints head coach Sean Payton. He will spread out the defense and force Brees to hit a multitude of targets all day long. 

The Verdict: Payton and Brees will utilize every weapon the Saints have in their arsenal and when it is all said and done I would expect no less then 7 Saints players to have a catch. This swiss cheese philosophy will be enough to send New Orleans to their first 4-0 start since 1993. Final line: New Orleans-24 NYJ- 17

Andre Johnson, WR, Hou vs. Nnamdi Asomugha, CB, Oak

Its all about picking your spots. The Raiders are dreadful once again and should be in for another long day against this potent Texans offense.   The lone bright spot for this Oakland team week in and week out is All-Pro cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha.  Asomugha is a ballhawk who is the rare breed of corner that can shut down one half of the football field.  He reminds me of Charles Woodson when he was a Raider.  Asomugha doesn’t quite possess the speed, but teams would constantly shy away from throwing to Woodson’s side of the field knowing full well that he would make a play on almost any ball throw his way.  Asomugha fits this mold perfectly.  Still, Andre Johnson is one of the games elite wide receivers.  His combination of size, speed and athletic ability are trouble for any defense.  He is the one player on this Texans team that a game plan is to be centered around.  Johnson’s last two games versus the Raiders have had him scratching his head in dismay, going for a combined 3 catches for a paltry 18 yards and no scores.

The Verdict: Johnson. I really think the Raiders will load up and try to over compensate for their dismal run defense, opening up gaps all over the field for Johnson to work. Houston will put Johnson in motion in an attempt to free him from Asomugha’s grasp and I think this will be more than enough for him to get loose for a big day. Final line:  Johnson- 6 Catches- 85 yards- 1 TD

Brett Favre vs. Green Bay Defense

Anytime a player has an entire team head hunting, it cant mean good things.  Unfortunately for Brett Favre this is the situation he will find himself in come Monday night.  I’m sure Favre would love more than anything to prove a point to his former employers that they made a mistake but Green Bay is not just a team in Wisconsin.  They are a cult.  Comfort with tendencies coupled with a defensive backfield that features big play ball hawks and Favre will find himself forcing one too many throws. 

Verdict: Green Bay Defense.  I am not saying the Packers will win this game. The Viking boast one of the leagues best defenses themselves and top to bottom are very impressive.  But when it comes to Favre versus his former team I will be taking the latter.  Final line: Favre- 215 yards-0 TD’s- 2 picks.

The Nostrodamus Effect

Lets makes some irrational and clearly irresponsible predications:

1.5: Joe Flacco Interceptions- Over

16: Giants margin of victory- Over

30: Larry Johnson rushing yards- Under

13: Times my eyes roll due to Raider inadequacies- Over: Lock of the week

3: Starting running backs that will not start for their next week- Push

5.5: 100 yard rushing performances this week- Under

3.5: 300 yard  passing performances- Under

6.5: 100 yard receiving performances- Over

 .5: Lions victories- Don’t push your luck Motown- Under

9: Jemarcus Russell completions- Under (roll my eyes moment #1)

Picks:

Bears, Browns, Colts, Giants, Pats, Redskins, Titans, Texans, Dolphins, Saints, Broncos, 49ers, Chargers, Minnesota.


Lastly...anyone reading this blog with any regularity (and thank you very much if you are) should also check out Laz's Blackboard.  His blog showcases insights on NFL picks, life and most importantly...sports. Check it out.