National League Championship Series Preview

The cover gets taken off what should be an exciting Dodgers-Phillies NLCS matchup

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Written by: MJK

The Breakdown: Balance and confidence.

The Lineup:  The Phillies and Dodgers boast two of the more potent and balanced lineups in all of baseball.  You don’t make it this far into the baseball season without having a boatload of talent and this series is no exception.  The Phillies offense is deep for a multitude of reasons. They offer an amount of power that is matched by few teams around the league.  Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez will need to seriously take advantage of men on base by driving in runs via the long ball.  Even with those big bats anchoring the lineup, the heart and soul of this Phillies team is shortstop Jimmy Rollins.  When he is able to get on base with any sort of consistency, he creates another level of excitement for the team to rely on. Rollins, paired with Shane Victorino and Jason Werth offer just the right amount of speed to put the pressure on any pitching staff.  The Phil's must be able to work deep counts and get on base at a high rate if they want their offense to perform like we all know it can.  If they can force pitchers out of games early and often then good things are bound to happen.

The Dodgers are coming off of a series that saw them really get after a prized pitching staff as the Cardinals hailed two potential Cy Young candidates at the top of their staff.  It didn’t matter. This lineup offers just as much balance as Philadelphia but for a number of different reasons.  Rather than hanging their hat on huge power bats and elite speed, LA uses an approach that stresses the importance of the of the little things. While extremely effective, the Phillies lineup does not offer the sort of average balance that the Dodgers do. Philly only had two regular starters (Utley and Victorino) that batted above .280 this season, a huge drawback in my eyes. Over half of the Dodgers lineup marched through the regular season batting at a .280 clip or higher. Pretty impressive.   What’s more, minus Rafael Furcal (who when hot is an on base machine, he is just getting a bit older now) the ENTIRE lineup boasted an On-Base Percentage of over .350, anchored by Manny Ramirez’s .418 clip. These are huge intangible stats that should never be overlooked. And I wont. The Dodgers get the slight edge here.

The Rotation: Cliff Lee has allowed the Phillies faithful to breathe much easier this postseason as he has arguably been the best pitcher in the playoffs to this point. In two starts versus the Rockies in the NLDS, Lee amassed 16.1 innings while only allowing 2 earned runs and striking out 10. Stellar numbers for a guy who has assumed the role of staff ace. On the contrary, Cole Hamels has gone from postseason hero in 2008 to regular season inconsistencies that have carried over into the playoffs after he only last 5 innings while giving up 4 runs in the divisional series.  He still has a great deal of potential to offer this staff.  If he can just find the right mix of location while taking advantage of his masterful changeup, he could prove to be the wildcard in this series.  As of right now, the ageless Pedro Martinez has gotten the call for a game 2 start. ‘Dro will be pitching with a chip on his shoulder as he has openly admitted to feeling slighted by the Dodgers for showing zero interest in his most recent comeback attempt (the one that saw these Phillies swoop him up), while still carrying a great deal of bitterness over his departure from LA all the way back in ’93.  How much this plays into the effectiveness of Martinez is to be seen considering he is now 37 years old and probably limited to 5 or 6 innings tops. One thing can be for sure…he will be prepared mentally. His location will have to be on point if he wants to have success versus the Dodgers.

LA’s rotation is highlighted by a squad of unsexy names that have proven to be just as effective as any rotation in baseball over the home stretch of the regular season.  Clayton Kershaw’s knee buckling curveball is worth the price of admission on most nights.  He has shown poise and confidence in his 2^nd full season, a notion that was further proven by his stellar showing in the divisional series against the Cardinals after allowing just 2 earned runs over 6.2 innings in his first career postseason start. It is baffling to think that he is only 21 years old.  He sure doesn’t pitch like it. After Kershaw, this rotation offers a pair of steady-as-she-goes starters in Randy Wolf and the LA rejuvenated Vicente Padilla, who was basically left for dead after being cut by the Texas Rangers earlier this year.  Wolf has been a very pleasant surprise for a staff that really needed some veteran leadership and now he will look to assert that leadership and experience against a Phillies team whom he played 8 seasons for. Chad Billingsly has the potential to offer somewhat of an ace in hole for manager Joe Torre. He has been relegated to the bullpen after an inconsistent back end to the season but if things at the top of the rotation falter for any reason, Billingsly offers an electric arsenal of pitches that could stifle any lineup if he can harness some of the command that got many people so excited at the beginning of the season. Watch out for Hiroki Kuroda coming back from injury to play a big role in a game 3 or 4 start as well. He provides the team with another experienced and well-equipped arm that should give a good amount of stability to this staff. When it comes down to it these rotations match up relatively well on paper, as both will probably not be asked to win many games but rather contain these offenses to a point that things don’t get out of hand. That being said, I like the depth and overall stability of a Dodgers staff that has shown a knack for being both effective and reliable throughout the season. The Dodgers get the edge again.

The Intangibles: Both of the managers of these respective teams have qualified resumes that would make any general manager in the MLB salivate. Joe Torre will look to take this opportunity to prove to his doubters that he can lead a team to the world series without having to rely on the payroll of a team like the Yankees who seemingly can buy whatever talent they please. Thus far Torre has done a great job in not only managing his team, but also the media and cohesiveness of his locker room (especially after the Manny Ramirez steroid suspension earlier this year). If there is one thing the Dodgers have an overwhelming advantage in it is their bullpen. The acquisition of George Sherrill at the trade deadline gave this team an 8^th inning stopper and perfect bridge to closer Jonathan Broxton.  Additionally, lets not forget about the deep bench Torre can tap into if necessary. Juan Pierre, Mark Loretta and Jim Thome are the perfect combination of bench bats that the Dodgers will surely look to take advantage of if the situation calls for it.   If Philadelphia gets into the late innings of any game, they will have to rely on a bullpen that has been shaky at best throughout the regular season.  But if closer Brad Lidge can find some of that late inning magic that propelled him to such fantastic run in 2008 he may be able to right the ship on what has been a disastrous season.  Something tells me that wont happen. Torre and his bullpen take this one home.

The Pick: This should be a fantastic series as I would expect it to go no less than 6 games. Both teams are coming off of convincing divisional series wins and come into the championship series with a huge head of steam. Still, as I have said before LA has been the best team in the National League all season long and I don’t expect that to stop now.  The Phillies are no pushovers by any means but I am taking the Dodgers in 6.