BCS Analysis

Whether you like it or not...the road to the National Championship goes through the BCS

Written by: D. Wash.

For those not familiar with the system, here's a quick overview. The BCS ranking system is how college football decides who will go to it's national championship game. It is a combination of two human polls (the Harris Poll and USA Today Poll) and one computer analysis of the team. These numbers are then combined and turned into a team’s raw BCS average. The teams are then ranked in order of BCS averages. Though it's not a perfect system, it’s the current one that we have so fans have to get over their problems with the system and just yearn to understand it. Without further ado, here is my analysis of the rankings.

1a and 1b (That’s how close they are). Florida and Alabama

Florida: Harris poll- #1, USA Today poll-#1, Computer- #1= BCS AVG-.988
Alabama: Harris-#2, USA Today- #2, Computer- #2= BCS AVG-.952

In the first official BCS rankings, the computers and the people have reached an agreement and placed Florida at #1. The Gators are a very good team and deserve to be ranked #1, but the same can be said about Alabama. Both teams offer solid offenses and stingy defenses. The biggest thing that keeps Florida ahead of Alabama is their darling star QB, Tim Tebow. He is a national fan favorite and one of the best players in college football this year. The closest thing that Alabama has on the Heisman front runner in Gainesville is their star running back Mark Ingram. He has some impressive numbers, and seems to have taken the nations #1 running back spot that Jhavid Best seemingly has vacated. The other thing that Bama lacks is a signature win over a top team. They did beat Virginia Tech and Ole Miss, but both of those teams have disappointed this year by losing to barely above average teams (Georgia Tech and South Carolina). Neither of those wins can even compare to Florida's win over LSU on primetime TV. In the end though, none of those little things will matter. These teams are set for a collision course in the SEC title game and a spot in the national championship. Whoever takes the SEC crown will clearly be the best team in the country, and no other team will be close.

3. Texas: Harris- #3, USA- #3, CPU- #6 = BCS AVG- .891

After a moderate gap in BCS averages, Texas takes their spot at #3. As of now they still deserve being ranked here, but Boise State, Cincinnati, Iowa, and USC are gaining fast on them. If they want to maintain their top 3 ranking they need to begin winning games convincingly, something that they have failed to do for most of the year.  If they do turn things around, then they are guaranteed a spot in the national championship game. One loss though, and they'll fall behind all of the aforementioned teams and possibly even TCU, LSU and The U.

4. Boise State: Harris-#5, USA-#5, CPU-#5= BCS AVG-.808

The perennial BCS buster lies at number 4, praying for a Texas loss. It's unlikely that Boise St. will lose before the season is over, but it'll be hard for them to leapfrog an unbeaten longhorn team. But if Texas does in fact end up losing a game, they are poised for a spot in the national title game (assuming that they don't get leapfrogged by Cincinatti, Iowa, or USC). Interesting note: This year the computers aren't the only ones that like Boise State. Both the Harris Poll and USA Today have Boise as their number 5 team in the nation (USC owns the #4 spot in the human polls).

5. Cincinnati: Harris-#6, USA-#6, CPU-#4, BCS AVG= .787

Despite the weak conference, Cincinnati is definitely deserving of their top 5 rankings. Their quarterback, Tony Pike, is mentioned in every Heisman discussion that includes more than Tim Tebow and Colt Mccoy. Pike is playing just as well as any quarterback in college football, he just hasn't had the opportunity to prove himself against a highly ranked team. He and his star receiver Marshawn Guillard are ready to run the Bearcat's offense to perfection and attempt to surpass Boise State in the polls. Their opportunistic defense is also a force to be reckoned and they will be playing for the respect of the voters for the rest of the year.

6. Iowa: Harris-#7, USA-#8, CPU-#3, BCS AVG= .786

After almost losing to Northern Iowa during week 1, Iowa fell off a lot of people's radars. The past couple of weeks they have worked their way back into the polls and up into the top 10. As expected, their defense has played extremely well and their running game has also made its’ presence felt. Interesting note: Iowa is actually ranked number 3 in the computer rankings. The computers have them as only slightly behind Alabama and easily ahead of Texas. It is the Harris and USA Today polls that are keeping them out of the top 5.

7. USC: Harris-#4, USA-#4, CPU-#11, BCS AVG= .769

USC is everyone's favorite one loss team. The story of true freshman quarterback Matt Barkley leading the Trojans only got better as Barkley played a key roll in beating the Fighting Irish last week. Joe McKnight is starting to look like the Reggie Bush V 2.0 that he was advertised as and safety Taylor Mays is one of the top defensive players in the nation. All that adds up to a huge following in the human polls. If the computers had their way though, USC wouldn't even be in the top 10. That makes me question this USC team and whether they deserve the spot in the national title game if Texas loses.

8. TCU: Harris-#8, USA- #7, CPU-#8, BCS AVG= .713

Despite showing some weakness two weeks ago against Air Force, TCU has continued to maintain their top 10 ranking. Quite impressive for a school from a smaller conference. Their easy schedule sets them up for an undefeated season, but I'm convinced that a lot of teams ahead of them would have to lose to secure them a spot in the national title game. Sorry Horned Frogs...

9. LSU: Harris-#9, USA- #10, CPU-#7, BCS AVG=.708

LSU lost to Florida, but there are some good things that may have come out of that loss. They lost their top 5 ranking, but they did play on national TV and show the voters their potential to be a top team. People will acknowledge that they do play in the tough SEC when they vote for them so look for them to overtake TCU in the rankings soon. Other than that, they'll have to pray for losses amongst the better teams to get into a top bowl game.

10. Miami: Harris-#10, USA-#9, CPU-#13, BCS AVG= .627

As far as losses go, you shouldn't expect anymore from The U for the rest of the season. They just began the easy part of their schedule (the ACC conference games), so as long as they can contain CJ Spiller (do-it-all running back from Clemson) and don't let Freshman QB BJ Daniels gut the defense (The true freshman has skill, don't doubt him), then they should go undefeated. When rankings are concerned, they are in the same boat as LSU. They can overtake TCU potentially, but other than that they need a loss to be relevant for the big bowl picture

Bradford Reinjures Shoulder, Getting Surgery

When you come back early from injury, this is exactly what you're praying doesn't happen. Bradford reinjured his shoulder early in the Texas game and looked like he was in unbelievable pain. It's speculated that Bradford will opt for season ending shoulder surgery soon but this re-aggravation of his previous shoulder injury still creates a number of problems for the 2008 Heisman winner. First, his chances of returning to play this season are near zero. Getting injured once is bad, getting injured twice is worse, getting injured three times may be impossible to recover from (as far as the draft is concerned). Secondly, it raises durability questions. The doctor stated that it was unlikely for him to reinjure his shoulder and yet he managed to reinjure it. That could lead some scouts to believe that he's made of glass and will frequent the injured list. Finally, it dramatically increases the importance of Bradford's NFL combine. For a quarterback who should be the top QB pick this year, not playing for the rest of the year could seriously damage his draft status. Without another chance to prove that he's "still got it" and won't be "gun shy", Bradford is going to need to have a PERFECT combine. Everything from his physical attributes, to his throwing drills, to his interviews must go off without a hitch. The scouts are gonna expect him to be rusty. He can't be rusty. He has to look in sync with the receivers that he'll be playing with for the first time. His timing must be near perfect. And of course, his shoulder must appear to be painless. Hopefully Bradford can put together a perfect combine and not lose to many draft positions because of this. I'm hoping he does.