MLB Divisional Series Rundown

Do the Phils' have what it takes to repeat? Postseason baseball is here.

Written by:MJK




Finally, the grueling 162-game regular season has come to a close and the excitement of October baseball is upon us.   After the Twins took down the Tigers in an epic 1-game playoff to determine the AL Central Champion it is time to shift our focus to the Divisional Series.  Here is a breakdown of what we can expect and my personal predictions.

American League Divisional Series:

Anaheim Angels (97-65; AL West division champ) vs. Boston Red Sox (95-67; AL Wild Card winner)

Breakdown: The Angels are looking to avoid having their season end at the hands of the Red Sox for the third consecutive year.  

Lineup: The Red Sox. Both the Angels and the Red Sox match up pretty evenly on offense. While the Angels offer more balance up and down the lineup than in seasons past. (4 players with 20+ HR), the Red Sox once again feature one of the games best lineups top to bottom. Jason Bay (36 HR, 119 RBI), Kevin Youkilis (.413 OBP, 27 HR, 94 RBI) and Victor Martinez pose a huge power threat for any opposing pitching staff.  Still, don’t discount the potency of the Angels offense either. The Red Sox definitely get the edge in sexy name value but if Chone Figgins (.395 on-base percentage, 42 steals) and Bobby Abreu (.390 OBP, 30 steals) can get on base anywhere near their OBP clip from the regular season the Angels will be in very good shape. I’d look for them to lean on the long ball a little more than usual while taking advantage of their patented small ball routine whenever possible.  That being said, the Red Sox get the slight edge if for no other reason they feature a deeper, more balanced lineup that not only will work the count, but will also make a pitcher pay with the homerun when a mistake is made.

Rotation: Angels. Everyone tends to fall in love with the story of Jon Lester or the big game pitching of Josh Beckett (probably rightfully so on both counts) but lets not over look what could be the best 5-game series starting rotation in the postseason right now.  This Angels rotation is grossly underrated. When John Lackey is on his game he is the type of pitcher that can put a team on his back for 7+ innings.  He is a true workhorse when healthy. The acquisition of Scott Kazmir from the Rays late in the season was huge. HUGE. Kazmir, though erratic at times, has pitched very well (1.73 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) since coming to southern California. When paired with Lackey and Jered Weaver the Angels boast a very dangerous rotation that is best fit for a 5-game playoff series.  Make no mistake about it. Josh Beckett will pitch well in Game 2 and probably beat the Angels. But the question marks at the back end of Boston’s rotation will be too much to overcome. Look for manager Mike Scoscia to ride his pitchers pitch counts well up into the 100’s if possible in an attempt to keep the game out of the bullpens hands.

Intangibles:  Angels. Both teams will try to take advantage of the speed within their respective batting orders in an attempt to put pressure on the opposing defense. The Angels offer much more speed top to bottom and should use this to their advantage. Boston slugger David Ortiz has really struggled this season and his lack of punch in this offense could be the determining factor in the series. He turned it on a bit in the second half, but he is by no means the Big Papi we have all grown to love.  The Red Sox bullpen is considerably better than the Angels but I would expect Angel manager Mike Scoscia to try his hardest not to tax his bullpen in the early innings of games.  The Angels have defied all odds after the Nick Adenhart tragedy early in the year and I really do think this will play into the hearts of this Angels team.

The Pick: Angels in 4.

New York Yankees (103-59; AL East Champion) vs. Minnesota Twins (87-76; AL Central Champion)

Breakdown: After defeating the Tigers in a 1-game playoff for the rights to get into the postseason, the Twins now have to face off against a Yankee team that has been rolling all season long. 

Lineup: Yankees.  This lineup really hasn’t slowed down at any point all year.  It has been a well-oiled machine and looks to continue its season long success deep into the post season.  Seven players on this team hit at least 20 homeruns, led by off-season prize Mark Texiera (39 HR) and Alex Rodriguez (30 HR).   Along with the power, the Yankees lineup saw 8 of their 9 everyday batters hit .270 or higher as well as 4 everyday players that stole 10 bases or more. Throw in Derek Jeter and Rodriguez’s 400+ OBP and we have THE most balanced offense in all of baseball.  For the Twins it wont be so easy.  Michael Cuddyer (32 HR, 94 RBI) has made huge strides this season and Joe Mauer may very well be the MVP of the league but the loss of Justin Morneau at the end of the season was a huge blow.  The Yankees get the nod here and its not even close.

Rotation: Yankees. C.C Sabathia has once again proven his worth as a legitimate frontline rotation ace, something Minnesota lacks.  However, the Yankees rotation after Sabathia is far from perfect.  The Yankees rotation love in the series is more of a testament to how sub-par the Twins rotation is. Sabathia, A.J Burnett and Andy Pettitte surely can provide the team with enough quality pitching and against this Twins lineup that shouldn’t be too much of an issue. However, the quality of pitching for the Bronx Bombers will be much more of a factor if (or when) they make it to the ALCS. After moving Francisco Liriano to the bullpen late in the year, the Twins will put their faith in a remarkably inconsistent Scott Baker and (gulp) Carl Pavano.  Not really the best-case scenario for any team.  Again, this decision wasn’t even close.

Intangibles: Yankees.  Notice a theme here? Look, I’m trying very hard not to play homer but when you look at these two teams on paper its hard not to drop the house on the Yankees in this series. Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire has once again maximized the value of his team to its fullest extent.  After all, the team needed a strong 2-week stretch to end the season AND a 1-game playoff with the Tigers just to get into the playoffs. I really think the Twins are going to be running on fumes for the remainder of the series.

The Pick: Yankees in 3. Sweep.

National League Divisional Series

Los Angeles Dodgers (95-67; NL West Champions) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (91-71; NL Central Champions)

Breakdown:  The Dodgers have been the best team in the National League all season.  Don’t expect them to stop now.

Offense: Dodgers.  When looking at the Dodgers lineup I see a little bit of everything. Even with a fertility drug-less Manny Ramirez looking rather human this lineup is extremely balanced and dangerous.  Ramirez, budding superstar Matt Kemp (26 HR, 101 RBI, 34 SB) and Andre Ethier (31 HR, 106 RBI) anchor a squad that top to bottom has almost no weaknesses.  On the flip side, the Cardinals feature a 3-4 punch that rivals some of the best in the game. NL MVP Albert Pujols (47 HR, 135 RBI, 16 SB) and Matt Holliday make this lineup extremely top heavy with out much supporting substance. 

Rotation: Cardinals.  The St. Louis staff is led by two Cy Young award candidates in Chris Carpenter (17-4, 2.24 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) and Adam Wainwright (19-8, 2.63 ERA).  What a luxury this must be.  This duo combined for 36 of the teams 91 wins this season, over a third of their victories. A fantastic ratio.  Throw in #3 starter Joel Piniero’s 15 wins and that ratio gets even more impressive. These three pose as much of a threat to offenses as any top of the rotation in baseball.   If the Cardinals have any aspirations of making it to the NLCS, these three will have to pitch exactly as they did in the regular season.  The Dodgers rotation was not nearly as productive on paper as the above mentioned but in a short series they can be every bit as dangerous. Young phenom Clayton Kershaw features a filthy arsenal of pitches that is highlighted by his knee-bending curve ball.  If Chad Billingsly can harness some of his early season form and Randy Wolf continues his stellar season than the Dodgers should be able to match St. Louis pitch for pitch.

Intangibles: Push.  Neither team offers much in the form of speed.  This series really could go either way.  On paper the Dodgers have a much deeper team, but if they fail to keep Albert Pujols in check then he alone will be able to turn the series around with one swing of the bat.  Personally, I don’t think Joe Torre will give him many pitches to hit.  Both Torre and St. Louis manager Tony LaRussa offer their teams a ton of experience and their players trust in their strategies. Still, you gotta stick with the best team.

The Pick: Dodgers in 5.

Philadelphia Phillies (93-69; AL East Champions) vs. Colorado Rockies (92-70; NL Wildcard winners)


Breakdown: Can the Rockies spoil Philadelphia's plans for a repeat?

Offense: Phillies.  Both of these teams feature very good offenses but the Phillies brings a lot more to the table.  This season the usual suspects have done their part for this offense.  Studs Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins have been fixtures in this lineup for quite a few seasons now.  But the offseason addition of Raul Ibanez as well as the emergence of Jayson Werth has really helped take this offense to another level.  I find it hard to imagine the Rockies having enough quality pitching to slow down this high-powered offensive machine.

Rotation: Phillies.  Philadelphia really did themselves a favor when they went out and added Cliff Lee at the trade deadline.  Cole Hamels has struggled to regain his 2008 form and Lee was the perfect complement.  He is a stopper that should be able to go deep into games. J.A Happ and the ageless Pedro Martinez should prove to be more than worthy as they look to form one of the more complete rotations of the postseason. 

Intangibles: Rockies.  It seems to happen every season. The Rockies catch magic in a bottle and ride an unforeseen hot streak into postseason immortality.  Earlier in the year, Colorado was almost left for dead as the division leading Dodgers looked as though they were going to pull away.  But the Rockies took them down to the final week before they were eliminated from Division Champion contention.  Can they ride on the coattails of yet another late season rally? On paper, conventional wisdom says no. Outside of pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez they really don’t have much to offer in the way of quality arms. There always seems to be a little bit of magic that happens up in the thin Colorado air. If the Rockies can win a game in Philadelphia then the trip to Colorado will not be easy for Philadelphia.

The Pick: Phillies in 5.