Super Bowl XLIV Preview

Written by Nick Kowalski
With Super Bowl XLIV being just hours away, a complete examination of the match up is in order. In a battle between both conference's top-seeded teams, the AFC Champion Indianapolis Colts (16-2) will face off against the best the NFC has to offer, in the New Orleans Saints (15-3). The Colts-Saints battle for the Vince Lombardy Trophy will mark the first between the league's two top-seeded teams since 1993.

The big game will be played at Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida - in what will be Little Havana's tenth time as host - beginning at 6:25 p.m. on CBS.

Led by four-time regular-season MVP and Superbowl XLI Champion, Peyton Manning, the Colts appear to be flying high. Jim Caldwell's team took swift care of upstart rookie running back Ray Rice's Baltimore Ravens in the second round. Sure, Indy had a slow first half in the AFC Championship vs. the Jets, as Manning and Co. were held to just 13 points. But in the second half, the Colts' offense took over. Referring back to the tail end of the regular season, die-hard Colts fans and the like criticized the team for, essentially, giving up the chance at a perfect record - after having started the season 14-0 - by resting several key players, in back-to-back losses against the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills. It is a given that the decision of Indianapolis' coaching staff to bench a faction of their starters was implemented with the intent of preparing for a deep run in the playoffs. And, for one, a perfect (regular) season already has been accomplished (2006 New England Patriots) - and, as proven, does not guarantee a Superbowl victory.

In opposition, New Orleans' high-octane offense, with All-Pro quarterback Drew Brees at the helm, will look to cap off its season-long success in what will be the franchise's first Superbowl appearance. Much like the Colts, the Saints flirted with perfection, but backed-into the playoffs, having suffered three straight losses in Weeks 15-17. Once they lost, 24-17, at home to the Cowboys, N. O. chose to preserve their talent for the playoffs - which, in hindsight, was a brilliant decision. Though an undefeated regular season would have meant a tremendous amount to the city ravaged by Hurricane Katrina, a win on Sunday in the franchise's first-ever Super Bowl appearance would mean even more.

The stats -

In an analysis of the regular season and playoff statistics, here is a brief highlight of both teams' numbers:

In the regular season, New Orleans led the league in total offense, at 403.8 yards per game, 272.2 of which were via air mail (4th best in league).

On the other hand, the Colts, who averaged 282.2 passing yards per game, were second in the NFL. In the playoffs, Indianapolis managed to average an impressive 368 yards of total offense. As well, Larry Coyer's bunch allowed the Ravens and Jets just a combined average of 86.5 yards on the ground.

Brees finished the season with a 70.6 completion percentage - an NFL record. Additionally, the proficient passer threw for 34 touchdowns, which was most in the league.

Injury report -

Pivotal injuries to star players can play a role in determining the outcome of the big game. If recent history is any indicator, inflicted players, dependant upon type and degree of injury, will strive to play through pain - and either triumphantly succeed, a la wide receiver Terrell Owens (9 receptions, 144 yards, 1 receiving touchdown) in Superbowl XXXIX or fail trying, like Heinz Ward (2 receptions for 43 yards) just last year.

This year is no exception. Colts' All-Pro defensive end, Dwight Freeney, is suffering from a sprained right ankle. Reportedly, Freeney, who has been virtually sidelined since the AFC Championship, did not practice with the team on Friday. The five-time Pro Bowl selection - who recorded a career-best 13.5 sacks this season - is an integral part of the Colts' rush defensive scheme and his full-strength services will be deeply missed on Sunday. It is a safe bet that Freeney will make a determined effort to play, but the likelihood of his making an impact on the field is doubtful. Also, Indy's top wide receiver, Reggie Wayne, left practice early on Friday after coming up short on a pass route, according to the Boston Herald. The four-time Pro Bowl wide out has allegedly re-aggravated a nagging hamstring injury.

The Saints have avoided the injury bug, to an extent. While starting safety Darren Sharper, linebacker Jonathan Vilma, and tight end Jeremy Shockey are recovering from minor knee injuries, all three practiced with the team on Friday and did not appear to be phased by any ailment.  Notably, Shockey sat out Super Bowl XLII with the New York Giants due to a season-ending broken left fibula acquired in Week 15. After practice, Head Coach Sean Payton stated that his team put a cap on a "good week of work." More importantly for the Bourbon Street dwellers, all members of the injury list suited up and practiced on Friday.

Weather report -

The National Weather Service reports that there will be sunny skies and a high/low near 71/54 degrees Fahrenheit in Miami on Sunday. There is a 30-40% chance at rain for Saturday, but it is expected to clear up in the evening.

Interesting note: As both the Saints and Colts play their home games in domes, neither team has played outdoors this playoff season. In fact, January 3 was the last time either team played a game in the elements - the Saints lost at Carolina (23-10) and the Colts got blown out in Buffalo (30-7).

Opinionated rambling -

I believe this year's Super Bowl will be memorable in that it pits two offensive powers against one another. Obviously, two All-Pro gunslingers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, who were both on the sidelines for this past week's Pro Bowl, will combine to throw for several touchdowns - early and often. For the Colts, even if Wayne is not at 100%, Manning has other weapons to work with, such as Clark or Addai. On the flip side, the New Orleans offense can score at will, too. Though known primarily for its elusive passing attack, the Saints' offense is actually two-pronged, as they command the leagues sixth-ranked rushing offense, led by running back Reggie Bush - which is not to snub rushing contributors Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell. Quite conversely, the Colts have the league's worst rushing offense, averaging a mere 80.9 yards per game. The game may be decided by who has the ball last, which brings place kickers into the equation. In that category, I give a solid advantage to the Colts's veteran kicker, Matt Stover, over the Saints' second-year kicker, Garrett Hartley. Without a healthy Freeney, the Colts will need Antoine Bethea to step up his game and get to Brees if they are to have a chance at halting the Saints' efficient and devastatingly destructive offense. That aside, Indianapolis' defense does tend to play sloppy and give up a lot of points, as seen in snippets throughout the second half of the regular season, though they did have the eighth-best scoring defense in the NFL (19.2 points per game). N. O.'s defense, featuring Vilma (110 tackles in 2009) and Sharper (tied for first with 9 interceptions this season), may have a comparative advantage over the Colts.

Prediction -

Peyton may have an edge in experience and leadership (after all, he is the league's reigning MVP), but I am confident in Brees' ability to move the chains against the Colts' mediocre defense. To no one's surprise, I expect New Orleans to take a page or two out of the Jets' first-half play book and blitz Manning throughout the game. Now, it may or may not pan out, but, either way, it may be enough to hold Manning to a few three-and-outs, especially late in the game. I believe wide receiver Marques Colston will have a quality outing as the Saints march past the Colts in what will be a high-scoring affair. Score: Saints 44, Colts 34. MVP: Drew Brees.

There you have it - I have provided an in-depth preview of Super Bowl XLIV and have shared with you my gut instinct regarding the outcome. Please feel free to leave a comment or contact me via email at nknk09@yahoo.com.